D-Day turned out to be ‘Diplomacy Day’ as Russia posts video of some forces pulling back

“The units of the Southern Military District, which completed their tasks as part of the planned tactical exercises at the combined arms training grounds of the Crimean Peninsula, began to return to their permanent deployment points in the morning,” said a photo description. “Upon arrival at the military units, the military equipment will be serviced and prepared for the next stage of combat training.”

But the videos do not demonstrate any de-escalation on Ukraine’s eastern or northern borders, where 150,000 troops remain deployed in an offensive crouch, awaiting orders. And the United States and NATO remain skeptical that the repositioning of heavy weapons out of Russian-annexed Crimea in the south represents a significant de-escalation.

WHITE HOUSE WATCHING RUSSIAN TROOP MOVEMENTS FOLLOWING CLAIMS OF PULLBACK

‘READY TO FOLLOW THE NEGOTIATING TRACK’: This is the day, Feb. 16, that U.S. intelligence assessed Russian President Vladimir Putin might order his troops across the border.

But after a meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in the Kremlin Tuesday, Putin struck a conciliatory tone, saying that while the U.S. and NATO response to his demands do not meet “fundamental Russian requirements,” that nevertheless they “still contain a number of considerations that we are not only ready to discuss but that we have actually suggested to our partners over the years.”

“I am referring to our proposals on European security, certain weapons systems, notably, intermediate and shorter-range missiles, and military transparency,” Putin said. “We are also ready to follow the negotiating track, but all issues, as we said before, must be considered in a package, without being separated from Russia’s fundamental proposals.”

PUTIN MIGHT HAVE BLINKED, BUT RUSSIA CAN STILL ATTACK UKRAINE WITHOUT WARNING

BIDEN: ‘I AGREE’: In a 10-minute address to the nation yesterday, President Joe Biden welcomed the diplomatic overtures but said the U.S. has not seen concrete evidence of a military de-escalation.

“Yesterday, the Russian government publicly proposed to continue the diplomacy. I agree. We should give the diplomacy every chance to succeed,” Biden said. “We’re proposing new arms control measures, new transparency measures, new strategic stability measures.”

“We will not sacrifice basic principles, though,” he said. “Nations have a right to sovereignty and territorial integrity. They have the freedom to set their own course and choose with whom they will associate. But that still leaves plenty of room for diplomacy and for de-escalation.”

‘AN INVASION REMAINS DISTINCTLY POSSIBLE’: While Pentagon officials have avoided giving a specific number of Russian troops encircling Ukraine, Biden, for the first time, put the number at 150,000.

“An invasion remains distinctly possible. That’s why I’ve asked several times that all Americans in Ukraine leave now before it’s too late to leave safely,” Biden said. “It is why we have temporarily relocated our embassy from Kyiv to Lviv in western Ukraine, approaching the Polish border.”

“We have not yet verified that Russian military units are returning to their home bases. Indeed, our analysts indicate that they remain very much in a threatening position,” he said.

WHITE HOUSE STEPS GINGERLY AROUND UKRAINE’S NATO AMBITIONS

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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has arrived at NATO headquarters in Brussels for what was originally scheduled as the regular winter meeting of allied defense ministers but has morphed into urgent consultation on the Ukraine crisis.

In a brief appearance with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg this morning, Austin said the NATO alliance is stronger than ever and that he looked forward to rolling up his sleeves and getting to work.

Stoltenberg acknowledged the defense ministerial is “even more important now when Europe is in the midst of a critical security situation,” and he said while the alliance remains ready to engage in dialogue with Russia to seek a political, diplomatic solution, “ We are also prepared for the worst.”

In a news conference yesterday ahead of the gathering, Stoltenberg called the signals from Putin that diplomatic efforts should continue “grounds for cautious optimism,” but he noted that as of Tuesday, “We have not seen any sign of de-escalation on the ground.”

Again this morning, Stoltenberg said, “At the moment, we have not seen any withdrawal of Russian forces. If they really start to withdraw forces, that’s something we will welcome, but that remains to be seen.”

JUST SAY ‘NYET’ TO PUTIN: Frustrated by their inability to get Democrats to agree to impose any sanctions on Russia before a possible invasion, Republican senators, led by Idaho Sen. James Risch, the top Republican on the Foreign Relations Committee, have introduced their own sanctions bill.

The Never Yielding Europe’s Territory, or NYET Act, provides “critical support Ukraine needs to defend itself and deter Russian aggression today, while imposing real costs on the Kremlin for its ongoing and potential future aggression against Ukraine,” according to a statement from Risch.

Among other things, the bill would immediately stop construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that is intended to transport Russian gas to Germany, and in the event of a Russian invasion, it would mandate sanctions that the president would not be able to waive.

The bill has 32 cosponsors, all Republicans.

‘PARTISAN POSTURING’: Meanwhile, New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is fuming about what he called the Republican’s “partisan Russia sanctions package.”

“It’s a shame that Senate Republicans have decided to choose partisan posturing instead of working to reach consensus on a comprehensive bipartisan proposal that would demonstrate a united front to deter Putin from re-invading Ukraine,” Menendez said in a statement.

“The latest proposal by Republicans is largely a reflection of what Democrats had already agreed to in our ongoing conversations, building off of the ‘mother of all sanctions’ we initially proposed,” he said. “A partisan victory is not worth a message of division from Washington, which only benefits Putin.”

ONE THING WE CAN AGREE ON: Failing to reach consensus on a bipartisan sanctions package, a dozen senior senators, including the majority and minority leaders, and the heads of the House and Senate Armed Services Committees, issued a “bipartisan message of solidarity” to the Ukrainian people in their “darkest hour.”

“Make no mistake: the United States Senate stands with the people of Ukraine and our NATO allies and partners most threatened by Russian aggression,” the message said. “The international order established in the aftermath of World War II has not faced such a grave threat since the Cold War. This order, which protects the sovereignty and territorial integrity of nations, has enabled an unprecedented era of peace and prosperity for the United States and its allies. Unfortunately, Russia is threatening this system, and the United States is prepared to meet this challenge with bipartisan and unified resolve.”

The joint statement was signed by Sens. Chuck Schumer, Mitch McConnell, Dick Durbin, John Thune, Jack Reed, Jim Inhofe, Sherrod Brown, Pat Toomey, Bob Menendez, Jim Risch, Mark Warner, and Marco Rubio.

KURILLA NOMINATION ADVANCES: The Senate Armed Services Committee has voted to send the nomination of Army Lt. Gen. Michael Kurilla to get his fourth star and be commander of the U.S. Central Command to the full Senate.

The favorable report was among 780 pending military promotions in the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps that were also sent for a floor vote.

PAIN AT THE PUMP: The crisis in Ukraine is already roiling the world’s energy market, with oil prices hovering in the $90 a barrel range and forecast to hit $100 a barrel.

A lot depends on how the crisis is resolved. An invasion by Russia and sanctions would likely plunge the world into a shortage of petroleum and natural gas.

“I will not pretend this will be painless,” Biden said in his Tuesday address. “There could be an impact on our energy prices, so we are taking active steps to alleviate the pressure on our own energy markets and offset rising prices.”

“We’re coordinating with major energy consumers and producers. We’re prepared to deploy all the tools and authority at our disposal to provide relief at the gas pump,” Biden said. “And I will work with Congress on additional measures to help protect consumers and address the impact of prices at the pump.”

PUTIN DENIES WEAPONIZING NATURAL GAS: In his joint appearance with Germany’s chancellor yesterday, Putin insisted the completed, but unopened, Nord Stream 2 pipeline under the Baltic Sea would be operated on a “commercial basis,” free of politics, and that Ukraine would not be cut out of its lucrative transfer fees.

“This is one of Europe’s largest infrastructure projects. It is designed to substantially enhance energy security in Europe and facilitate the resolution of pan-European economic and environmental goals. As I have said on many occasions, this is strictly a commercial project without any hint of politics,” Putin said.

“I would also like to note that we are ready to continue distributing gas through Ukraine even after 2024 when the current contract for the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine expires. Naturally, we will do this if there is demand from European importers, if it is profitable, and if Ukraine’s gas transport system is in proper technical shape.”

GERMANY’S DELICATE DANCE: Germany gets 40% of its natural gas from Russia, mostly over the Nord Stream 1 pipeline built under the Baltic Sea in 2012.

In his remarks after meeting with Putin, Chancellor Olaf Scholz was careful to avoid the discussion of what would happen to the new pipeline that President Joe Biden vowed again yesterday to stop if Russia invades.

“When it comes to Nord Stream 2, the pipeline that would bring natural gas from Russia to Germany, if Russia further invades Ukraine, it will not happen,” Biden said.

Scholz underscored Germany’s close economic cooperation with Russia and expressed the hope that it would continue. “We can bear responsibility for climate change only if we bear it together, and it is crucial that this issue remain important in Germany and Russia’s relations in the future, too,” he said.

“It is quite obvious … that further military aggression against Ukraine will entail serious political, economic, and strategic consequences. It seemed to me that everybody understands this clearly,” Scholz said. “We must not end up at an impasse, which would be a disaster for all of us.”

“However difficult the situation is now, I would not call it desperate. Now we must act courageously and responsibly,” he said. “I will say that war in Europe has become unimaginable for my generation, and we must make sure it remains so.”

OPINION: OLAF SCHOLZ BETRAYS UKRAINE AND THE WEST

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Russia says some troops leaving Ukraine border, Pentagon skeptical amid invasion fears

Washington Examiner: Putin might have blinked, but Russia can still attack Ukraine without warning

Washington Examiner: Russia and Belarus training ‘for a conflict with NATO,’ Estonia says

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Biden’s strong message on NATO and American values

Washington Examiner: Ukraine Defense Ministry and banks hit by cyberattack

Washington Examiner: Military spent nearly 6 million hours on climate, diversity, and ‘extremism’ under Biden

Washington Examiner: Just 1,200 Afghan refugees left on a single US military base, DHS says

Washington Examiner: Texas receives abandoned materials from federal government for border wall

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Olaf Scholz betrays Ukraine and the West

AP: NATO sees no sign Russia is pulling back troops near Ukraine

New York Times: U.S. Arms Sent To Ukraine Would Blunt But Not Stop A Russian Invasion

Military.com: The First Shots in a Ukraine Conflict May Be in Space

Washington Post: U.S.: Broad Breach By Russian Hackers Likely In Ukraine

Reuters: Taiwan Says Chinese Plane Flew Close To Remote Island

Washington Times: New U.S. Sanction Rules Hit Dozens Of Chinese Firms Linked To Military

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Defense Daily: Navy Christens First Snakehead Unmanned Undersea Vehicle

Air Force Magazine: Only Small Inventories of Hypersonic Missiles in USAF’s Future, Due to Cost

Navy Times: Why Complaints About Hellish Living Conditions At Walter Reed Base Barracks Simply Disappeared

Military.com: Military Spent $1 Million Addressing Extremism, Diversity and Climate Change Last Year

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19fortyfive.com: Opinion: Ukraine Proves ‘Asia vs. Europe’ Is a False US Foreign Policy Choice

Calendar

WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 16

All day — A two-day meeting of allied defense ministers at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news

9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “What’s Next for India and the Quad?” with Sana Hashmi, visiting fellow at the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation; Manjari Chatterjee Miller, senior fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations; and Harsh Pant, director of studies at the New Delhi Observer Research Foundation’s Strategic Studies Program https://www.csis.org/events/whats-next-india-and-quad

10 a.m. — Air Force Association Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual discussion on a new report, “Beyond Pixie Dust: A Framework for Understanding and Developing Autonomy in Unmanned Aircraft,” with author Heather Penney, AFA senior resident fellow https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/beyond-pixie-dust

10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies Missile Defense Project virtual discussion: “Project Convergence: An Experiment for Multidomain Operations,” with Lt. Gen. James Richardson, acting commanding general of Army Futures Command; Army Col. Toby Magsig, deputy exercise director for Project Convergence; and Gary Lambert, data collection and analysis lead for Project Convergence https://www.csis.org/events/project-convergence-experiment

10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments virtual book discussion on “War Transformed: The Future of 21st Century Great Power Competition and Conflict,” with author and Australian Army Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan, commander of the Australian Defense College; former Defense Undersecretary for Policy Eric Edelman, CSBA counselor; and Thomas Mahnken, CSBA president https://csbaonline.org/about/events/the-future-of-war

11 a.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion: “Who’s Afraid of the Military Industrial Complex? – The Shifting Politics of Pentagon Spending.” with Michael Brenes, interim director of the Brady-Johnson Program in Grand Strategy and history lecturer at Yale University; Shana Marshall, associate director of the Institute for Middle East Studies at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs; William Hartung, senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute; and Kelley Beaucar Vlahos, senior adviser at the Quincy Institute and editorial director of its online magazine https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register

12 p.m. — American Bar Association virtual discussion: “Germany’s Perspective of the Ukraine Crisis,” with Liana Fix, resident fellow at the German Marshall Fund’s Washington office; and Hermann Knott, partner at Koblenz, Mainz, Cologne and Dsseldor Law, Germany https://americanbar.zoom.us/webinar/register

12 p.m. — Washington Institute for Near East Policy virtual discussion: “Targeting the Islamic State: Jihadist Military Threats and the U.S. Response,” with Craig Whiteside, associate professor at the U.S. Naval War College; and Ido Levy, associate fellow at WINEP https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/targeting-islamic-state

12 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Assessing the Impact of Iraq’s Incoming Government,” with Feisal Al-Istrabadi, professor of global strategic studies at Indiana University at Bloomington; Sajad Jiyad, fellow at the Century Foundation; and Marsin Alshamary, research fellow at Harvard Kennedy School’s Middle East Initiative https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/assessing-the-impact-of-iraqs-incoming-government

12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “The Shrinking U.S. Fighting Force: Is the American Military Fading Into Irrelevance?” with retired Marine Corps Maj. Gen. Arnold Punaro, CEO of the Punaro Group; Dan Patt, senior fellow at the Hudson Center for Defense Concepts and Technology; and Bryan Clark, director of the Hudson Center for Defense Concepts and Technology https://www.hudson.org/events/2075-virtual-event-the-shrinking-us-fighting-force-is-the-american-military-fading-into-irrelevance-22022

12:30 p.m. — George Washington University Security Policy Studies Program virtual discussion: “American Arctic Strategy for the 21st Century,” with representatives from the Air Force and Space Force. https://calendar.gwu.edu/american-arctic-strategy-21st-century

3 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The Future of the Royal Navy,” with UK First Sea Lord and Chief of Naval Staff Adm. Ben Key https://www.csis.org/events/future-royal-navy

3:30 p.m. — Bipartisan Policy Center virtual discussion, beginning at 3:30 p.m., on “Linking Climate, Trade, and Geopolitics,” with Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D.; former White House national security adviser retired Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster; George David Banks, fellow at BPC; and Xan Fishman, director of energy policy and carbon management at BPC https://bipartisanpolicy.org/event/the-geopolitical

THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 17

8:30 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the United States virtual book discussion on “The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict,” with author Elbridge Colby, former deputy assistant defense secretary for strategy and force development https://www.gmfus.org/event/strategy-denial-american-defense-age-great-power-conflict

10 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the nominations of Franklin Parker to be assistant secretary of the Navy for manpower and reserve affairs; Agnes Schaefer to be assistant secretary of the Army for manpower and reserve affairs; Ravi Chaudhary to be assistant secretary of the Air Force for energy, installations, and the environment; and Frank Calvelli to be assistant secretary of the air force for space acquisition and integration https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/nominations

10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual event: “Ukraine on the Eve of the Munich Security Conference,” with Rep. Mike Turner, R-Ohio and ranking member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence; and Kenneth Weinstein, distinguished fellow, Hudson Institute https://www.eventbrite.com/e/virtual-event-ukraine

10 a.m. — Air Force Association’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual Aerospace Nation discussion: “Spectrum Warfare,” with Maj. Gen. Daniel Simpson, assistant Air Force deputy chief of staff for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance; Air Force Col. William Young, commander of the 350th Spectrum Warfare Wing; former assistant deputy defense undersecretary for airborne reconnaissance Maj. Gen. Ken Israel; and Ken Dworkin, executive adviser for electromagnetic combat at Booz Allen Hamilton https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/aerospace-nation-spectrum-warfare

10 a.m. — Middle East Institute virtual discussion: “The Olympics and Russian Invasion,” with Robert McConnell, co-founder of the U.S.-Ukraine Foundation; Gonul Tol, director of the MEI Turkey Program; Iulia Joja, director of the MEI Frontier Europe Initiative; and retired Air Force Gen. Phillip Breedlove, chair of the MEI Frontier Europe Initiative https://www.mei.edu/events/olympics-and-russian-invasion

10:45 a.m. — American Bar Association’s Standing Committee on Law and National Security virtual National Security Law conference discussion: “The National Security Implications of Domestic Discord: How Our Adversaries Create, Enhance, and Use Our Internal Disagreements Against Us,” with Assistant Attorney General for National Security Matthew Olsen https://web.cvent.com/event

11 a.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center’s Middle East Program virtual book discussion on “The Unfinished History of the Iran-Iraq War: Faith, Firepower, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards,” with author Annie Tracy Samuel, assistant professor of history at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/documenting-irgc

12 p.m. — Vandenberg Coalition virtual discussion: “The Future of Conservative Foreign Policy,” with former State Department Policy Planning Staff Director Peter Berkowitz, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register

12 p.m. — Washington Post Live event: “World Stage: Crisis in Ukraine,” with William Taylor, Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live

1 p.m. — JINSA policy webinar: “What’s At Stake for U.S. & Israel in the Russia-Ukraine Crisis?” with retired Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe; former commander U.S. European Command

FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 18

All day — The Munich Security Conference begins and goes through Sunday. Feb. 20 at its traditional venue, the Hotel Bayerischer Hof in Munich. Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken attend, along withUkrainian President Vladimir Zelensky also plans to participate.https://securityconference.org/en/news/full/information

8 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Japan Institute of International Affairs virtual 2022 U.S.-Japan Security Seminar, with Japanese Foreign Affairs Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi; Kenichiro Sasae, president of JIIA; Tetsuo Kotani, senior fellow at JIIA; and Bonnie Lin, director of the CSIS China Power Project https://www.csis.org/events/2022-us-japan-security-seminar

10:45 a.m. — American Bar Association virtual National Security Law conference with sessions on “The End of Forever War? Now What?” and “The Future of National Security Surveillance” https://web.cvent.com/event